THE DOWN BALLOT – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  That refers to all the races below the presidency, appearing on the November ballot.  We're starting to get early indications of whether the Trump candidacy will have much effect on the result.  From The Hill:

Senate races in three battleground states — Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania — are nearly deadlocked, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.

In Ohio, incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R) has 42 percent support, trailing Democratic opponent Ted Strickland, who has 43 percent. The poll sampled 1,042 Ohio voters and has a margin of error of three points.

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Pat Toomey (R) has a one-point edge over Democrat Katie McGinty, 45 percent to 44 percent. The poll sampled 1,077 Pennsylvania voters and has a margin of error of three points.

In Florida, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.) leads all five Republican candidates by between one and six points.

The Republicans running are Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), Rep. David Jolly (R-Fla.), Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and businessmen Carlos Beruff and Todd Wilcox.

The Florida contest is a race to replace retiring Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). The poll sampled 1,051 Florida voters and has a margin of error of three points.

COMMENT:  Actually, there's nothing shocking here.  We knew long ago that all three races would be close.  Two of the three (Pennsylvania and Ohio) feature Republican incumbents fighting for re-election in swing states.  The third (Florida) features a race for the seat left open by Marco Rubio.  These are not easy states for either party. 

But I certainly don't see the devastating effects predicted if Trump moves toward victory in the Republican presidential nomination race.  It will take months before these races shake out and we see real trends.

May 11,  2016